Sunday, August 26, 2007

CO2 Again

Michael Asher's Blog at Daily Tech is an interesting look at the "Global Warming is Caused by CO2" claims.
Researchers on three different continents agree; CO2 is not the devil we once thought.
This article highlight something that I have pointed out for some time. Namely that CO2 has a limited role in the Global Warming component of Global Climate Change. See "Gore's - It's CO2" for one example.

The effect of CO2 on Global Temperature is best explained in terms of an analogy. For example, if tinting your windows reduces the amount of light entering from the outside by 70%, adding another layer reduces the remaining light by another 70%, a third layer cuts the remaining entering light another 70% and so on. (In case your keeping track, the first sheet cut 70%, the second sheet 70% of the 30% remaining or 21% and the third 70% of the 9% left or 6.3% for at total of 97.3%)

CO2 works in a similar fashion. As can be clearly seen there is a limit to the effect of CO2, and the effect is not linear. Therefore, the IPCC temperature increase claimed by the doubling of CO2 levels (1900-2100), has been grossly overstated. According Michael Asher's Blog, the corrected increase is exposed by one of 2 cited papers.
The first is by atmospheric scientist Stephen Schwartz, of Brookhaven National Labs. Entitled, "Heat Capacity, Time Constant, and Sensitivity of Earth's Climate System", the paper is based on more accurate estimates of feedback processes in the Earth's atmosphere. It concludes the IPCC estimate of 2 - 4.5C degrees warming (from the anticipated 1900-2100 doubling of CO2 levels) is much too high, and the actual figure should be closer to 1.1 degree.
Also remember that CO2 is only responsible for a part of the total Global Warming equation.
The conclusion is very significant as we've already experienced some 0.7 degrees of that warming. That means over the next century, only an additional 0.4 degrees warming is expected. And after that, the warming effect will nearly vanish.
Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian are the 2 Chinese researchers who authored the second paper mentioned in Asher's Blog.
Using a technique called Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), they decoded temperature changes into three natural cycles-- 6-8 years, 20 years, and 60-years, along with a fourth signal, a non-periodic rising trend, which they associated with CO2-based warming. They found that the largest effect on temperature change was due to these natural cycles, and that the CO2-based trend could only be responsible for a maximum of 40% of the warming attributed to it.
What's even more damaging to those who continue to embrace the claim that CO2 is the most dangerous man made Greenhouse is the conclusion of the Chinese Researchers.
Most astonishingly, they concluded that global cooling will result for at least the next two decades, as the longer cycles are now both in downward motion. [emphasis in original]
As more research on Global Climate change is done, it becomes evident that we still don't know enough about the factors contributing to Global Climate Change. But one fact should be evident. There just isn't enough evidence to demand a Political Solution to What may well be the Natural Cycles of the Earth.

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