Saturday, May 3, 2008

What Ifs

Dick Morris points out a fatal flaw in the Democratic Iraq strategy. (See "O’Reilly-Clinton Interview Shows Dem Flaw") The question of "What Ifs" is what will enable the Republican Party to retain the White House for at Least another 4 years.
Bill O'Reilly asked Hillary Clinton the key question about the war in Iraq: What happens if we pull out and the Iranians move in? She talked around the issue, but never gave a convincing answer to O'Reilly's question. She said she would replace force with diplomacy. But, as Frederick the Great said, “Diplomacy without force is like music without instruments.” If our troops are long gone from Iraq, the Iranians will snub our diplomacy and laugh at our entireties. They will add Iraq to their other trophies in the region: Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.
The Democrats have long maintained that the fighting in Iraq cannot be solved Militarily. For anyone who takes the time to think about Military actions in time of Battle or War, realizes no conflict is EVER WON by Military means alone. And the Point Dick Morris is making is the same one I have stated many times before - Diplomatic negations end the conflict, BUT the Military Wins the Battles which make the enemy want to negotiate piece. One cannot exist successfully without the other.
What do the Democrats propose? Obama and Hillary both want to pull out as soon as technically feasible. OK. But what happens if Iran moves into the vacuum and takes over Iraq? And what if Al Qaeda takes advantage of the American absence and sets up a permanent base and sanctuary in Iraq, beyond our reach — a situation akin to the Taliban in Afghanistan where they could develop the capacity to hit us on 9-11 in their privileged, protected home territory? And what if hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who used to work with us start to be killed as happened when we pulled out of Vietnam? And what if the Iraqi oil falls into Iranian hands, sending the price even higher? And what if … The list goes on.
As the flaw in the Democratic Strategy becomes more obvious after the Nominations are finalized, John McCain's policy win in Iraq becomes the only viable course of action.
The truth is that the Democrats are cashing in on a mindless impatience with Iraq and an unwillingness to think through the consequences of pulling out. They are capitalizing on an emotional “no” in reaction to the war. But when the alternatives are carefully explained and examined, as they will be in a presidential debate, they are not going to embrace the answers Obama or Hillary will have to the “what ifs.” They will see the Democratic position as extremist and unworkable and will come to see the Democratic candidate who is pushing them as unprepared and unrealistic. If the candidate is Obama, their concerns will resonate with their perception that he is inexperienced and doesn't know his way around foreign policy. This will raise more and more doubts about his ability to lead us in a time of crisis.
The same can be said for candidate Hillary. The course of action does not involve making a bad situation worse by withdrawing the Military before the Diplomatic process is complete. The Democrats have played only to the emotion of the people. They are not talking about the reality of the world situation.

The question of how or why we became involved in Iraq is irrelevant in today's world. This is a question for the Historians to answer. For us the question which we need to consider is What do we do now? and What happens after that. To pull out before the Diplomatic win is achieved will be a much bigger disaster than anything you think has happened up to now.

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